The Economic Impact for Buying a Home on Mt. Hood
Monday, May 11, 2020
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Mt. Hood Real Estate Blog
Liz Warren
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The Big Question for Mt. Hood Buyers and Sellers In Today's Market
Monday, May 11, 2020
Will Home Values Appreciate or Depreciate in 2020?
With the housing market staggered to some degree by the health crisis the country is currently facing, some potential purchasers are questioning whether home values will be impacted. The price of any item is determined by supply as well as the market’s demand for that item.
Each month the National Association of Realtors (NAR) surveys “over 50,000 real estate practitioners about their expectations for home sales, prices and market conditions” for the REALTORS Confidence Index.
Their latest edition sheds some light on the relationship between seller traffic (supply) and buyer traffic (demand) during this pandemic.
Buyer Demand
The map below was created after asking the question: “How would you rate buyer traffic in your area?”
The darker the blue, the stronger the demand for homes is in that area. The survey shows that in 34 of the 50 U.S. states, buyer demand is now ‘strong’ and 16 of the 50 states have a ‘stable’ demand.
Seller Supply
The index also asks: “How would you rate seller traffic in your area?”
As the map above indicates, 46 states and Washington, D.C. reported ‘weak’ seller traffic, 3 states reported ‘stable’ seller traffic, and 1 state reported ‘strong’ seller traffic. This means there are far fewer homes on the market than what is needed to satisfy the needs of buyers looking for homes right now.
With demand still stronger than supply, home values should not depreciate.
What are the experts saying?
Here are the thoughts of three industry experts on the subject:
“We note that inventory as a percent of households sits at the lowest level ever, something we believe will limit the overall degree of home price pressure through the year.”
Mark Fleming, Chief Economist, First American:
“Housing supply remains at historically low levels, so house price growth is likely to slow, but it’s not likely to go negative.”
“Two forces prevent a collapse in house prices. First, as we indicated in our earlier research report, U.S. housing markets face a large supply deficit. Second, population growth and pent up household formations provide a tailwind to housing demand.”
Bottom Line
Looking at these maps and listening to the experts, it seems that prices will remain stable throughout 2020. If you’re thinking about listing your home, let’s connect to discuss how you can capitalize on the somewhat surprising demand in the market now.
Unemployment Stats and Projections
Thursday, May 7, 2020
Unemployment: Hope on the Horizon
Tomorrow, the unemployment rate for April 2020 will be released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. It will hit a peak this country has never seen before, with data representing real families and lives affected by this economic slowdown. The numbers will alarm us. There will be headlines and doomsday scenarios in the media. There is hope, though, that as businesses reopen, most people will become employed again soon.
Last month’s report indicated we initially lost over 700,000 jobs in this country, and the unemployment rate quickly rose to 4.4%. With the release of the new data, that number will climb even higher. Experts forecast this report will show somewhere between a 15% - 20% national unemployment rate, and some anticipate that number to be even greater (see graph below):
What’s happened over the last several weeks?
Here’s a breakdown of this spring’s weekly unemployment filings:
The good news shown here indicates the number of additional unemployment claims has decreased week over week since the beginning of April. Carlos Rodriguez, CEO of Automatic Data Processing (ADP) says based on what he’s seeing:
“It’s possible that companies are already anticipating some kind of normalization, opening in certain states and starting to post jobs.”
He goes on to say that this doesn’t mean all companies are hiring, but it could mean they are at the point where they’re not cutting jobs anymore. Let’s hope this trend continues.
What will the future bring?
Most experts predict that while unemployment is high right now, it won’t be that way for long. The length of unemployment during this crisis is projected to be significantly shorter than the duration seen in the Great Recession and the Great Depression.
While forecasts may be high, the numbers are trending down and the length of time isn’t expected to last forever.
Bottom Line
Don’t let the headlines rattle you. There’s hope coming as we start to safely reopen businesses throughout the country. Unemployment affects our families, our businesses, and our country. Our job is to rally around those impacted and do our part to support them through this time.
Mt. Hood Water Supply
Wednesday, May 6, 2020
The Mt. Hood area appears to be in a moderate drought level for this coming summer. The National Weather Service has issued a drought report for the state of Oregon and in general it looks fairly serious for the state. Based on snowpack as of May 6, 2020 we are at 68% of normal levels based upon the OregonLive report from the Mt. Hood Snowtel test site. This info shows 40 years of Mt. Hood snowpack.
Download the full report of the Oregon Drought Report for 2020.
How Much Equity in Your Mt. Hood Home?
Wednesday, May 6, 2020
Why Home Equity Is a Bright Spark in the Housing Market
Given how we have seen more unemployment claims than ever before over the past several weeks, fear is spreading widely. Some good news, however, shows that more than 4 million initial unemployment filers have likely already found a new job, especially as industries such as health care, food and grocery stores, retail, delivery, and more increase their employment opportunities. Breaking down what unemployment means for homeownership, and understanding the significant equity Americans hold today, are important parts of seeing the picture clearly when sorting through this uncertainty.
One of the biggest questions right now is whether this historic unemployment rate will initiate a new surge of foreclosures in the market. It’s a very real fear. Despite the staggering number of claims, there are actually many reasons why we won’t see a significant number of foreclosures like we did during the housing crash twelve years ago. The amount of equity homeowners have today is a leading differentiator in the current market.
Today, according to John Burns Consulting, 58.7% of homes in the U.S. have at least 60% equity. That number is drastically different than it was in 2008 when the housing bubble burst. The last recession was painful, and when prices dipped, many found themselves owing more on their mortgage than what their homes were worth. Homeowners simply walked away at that point. Now, 42.1% of all homes in this country are mortgage-free, meaning they’re owned free and clear. Those homes are not at risk for foreclosure (see graph below):
In addition, CoreLogic notes the average equity mortgaged homes have today is $177,000. That’s a significant amount that homeowners won’t be stepping away from, even in today’s economy (see chart below):
In essence, the amount of equity homeowners have today positions them to be in a much better place than they were in 2008.
Bottom Line
The fear and uncertainty we feel right now are very real, and this is not going to be easy. We can, however, see strength in our current market through homeowner equity that has not been there in the past. That may be a bright spark to help us make it through.
Check out the average sales price over the years for the Mt. Hood area.
1940's Mt. Hood Log Cabin
Monday, May 4, 2020
Mt. Hood classic 1940's log cabin located in the Mt. Hood National Forest on leased land. Old growth planked floors and ceilings throughout and original paned windows. Stone fireplace to warm you toes after a day on the slopes. Updated kitchen and bath plus new roof!
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$159,000
More information on 72324 E. Faubion Loop Rhododendron, Or.
Rhododendron Mountain Retreat
Saturday, May 2, 2020
If you are looking for a starter home or a super recreational getaway, this is the place. Like new and rebuild in 2015 with open floor plan. Custom built with two bedrooms on the main level and a spacious loft upstairs. New toe warming wood stove heats the whole house. Utility room with sink and includes washer and dryer.
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There's plenty of parking with a bonus carport. The location is great and only 15 minutes to ski slopes! Mt. Hood National Forest is just down the street. Get out of the city and enjoy all Mt. Hood's fun!
Here is more info on 25571 E. Pinner Road in Rhododendron, Oregon
Mt. Hood Real Estate Sales in March
Thursday, April 23, 2020
Mt. Hood real estate sales for March 2020 came in with a total of twelve closings. The sales run the gamut from a Mt. Hood Village cottage, two forest service cabins and two Government Camp chalets closing. The Covid-19 shut down will hugely impact our April sales. Many sellers are holding off putting their homes on the market till things open up a bit more. Current inventory sits at 33 properties for sale.
The twelve sales are listed below.
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