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Mt. Hood Real Estate Blog

Liz Warren

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Displaying blog entries 301-310 of 1923

Is the Housing Market Correcting on Mt. Hood?

by Liz Warren

Is the Housing Market Correcting on Mt. Hood?

Is the Housing Market Correcting? | MyKCM
 

If you're following the news, all of the headlines about conditions in the current housing market may leave you with more questions than answers. Is the boom over? Is the market crashing or correcting? Here’s what you need to know.

The housing market is moderating compared to the last two years, but what everyone needs to remember is that the past two years were record-breaking in nearly every way. Record-low mortgage rates and millennials reaching peak homebuying years led to an influx of buyer demand. At the same time, there weren’t enough homes available to purchase thanks to many years of underbuilding and sellers who held off on listing their homes due to the health crisis.

This combination led to record-high demand and record-low supply, and that wasn’t going to be sustainable for the long term. The latest data shows early signs of a shift back to the market pace seen in the years leading up to the pandemic – not a crash nor a correction. As realtor.com says:

The housing market is at a turning point. . . . We’re starting to see signs of a new direction, . . .”

Home Showings Then and Now

The ShowingTime Showing Index tracks the traffic of home showings according to agents and brokers. It’s a good indication of buyer demand. Here’s a look at that data going back to 2019 (see graph below):

Is the Housing Market Correcting? | MyKCM

The 2019 numbers give a good baseline of pre-pandemic demand (shown in gray). As the graph indicates, home showings skyrocketed during the pandemic (shown in blue). And while current buyer demand has begun to moderate slightly based on the latest data (shown in green), showings are still above 2019 levels.

And since 2019 was such a strong year for the housing market, this helps show that the market isn’t crashing – it’s just at a turning point that’s moving back toward more pre-pandemic levels.

Existing Home Sales Then and Now

Headlines are also talking about how existing home sales are declining, but perspective matters. Here’s a look at existing home sales going all the way back to 2019 using data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) (see graph below):

Is the Housing Market Correcting? | MyKCM

Again, a similar story emerges. The pandemic numbers (shown in blue) beat the more typical year of 2019 home sales (shown in gray). And according to the latest projections for 2022 (shown in green), the market is on pace to close this year with more home sales than 2019 as well.

It’s important to compare today not to the abnormal pandemic years, but to the most recent normal year to show the current housing market is still strong. First American sums it up like this:

“. . . today’s housing market looks a lot like the 2019 housing market, which was the strongest housing market in a decade at the time.”

Bottom Line

If recent headlines are generating any concerns, look at a more typical year for perspective. The current market is not a crash or correction. It’s just a turning point toward more typical, pre-pandemic levels. Let’s connect if you have any questions about our local market and what it means for you when you buy or sell this year.

          

Wildfire Tips for Mt. Hood

by Liz Warren

If you're looking for some good Mt. Hood Wildfire tips, this is a great site to visit and review for preparation:

Wildfire Tips for Mt. Hood

Secluded Five Acre Mt. Hood Charmer With Barn and Pond

by Liz Warren

Rarely available secluded and sunny location for this  five acre parcel. Four bedroom home, seasonal creek, pond, and your own forest. Tucked away in Brightwood just off Hwy 26 you'll find this contemporary home. Bonus 2400 sq. ft. barn, poultry building, and hot tub hut. It's close to all Mt. Hood activities including Sandy Ridge Biking Park, three ski areas and the Mt. Hood National Forest and BLM land close by! $995,000

Brightwood Acreage on Mt. Hood with Four Bedroom Home

       Gourmet Kitchen in Brightwood Oregon  Dining Room Fireplace in Brightwood Oregon

Why Home Loans Today Aren’t What They Were in the Past

by Liz Warren

Why Home Loans Today Aren’t What They Were in the Past

Why Home Loans Today Aren’t What They Were in the Past | MyKCM
 

In today’s housing market, many are beginning to wonder if we’re returning to the riskier lending habits and borrowing options that led to the housing crash 15 years ago. Let’s ease those concerns.

Several times a year, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) releases an index titled the Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI). According to their website:

“The MCAI provides the only standardized quantitative index that is solely focused on mortgage credit. The MCAI is . . . a summary measure which indicates the availability of mortgage credit at a point in time.”

Basically, the index determines how easy it is to get a mortgage. The higher the index, the more available mortgage credit becomes. Here’s a graph of the MCAI dating back to 2004, when the data first became available:

Why Home Loans Today Aren’t What They Were in the Past | MyKCMAs the graph shows, the index stood at about 400 in 2004. Mortgage credit became more available as the housing market heated up, and then the index passed 850 in 2006. When the real estate market crashed, so did the MCAI as mortgage money became almost impossible to secure. Thankfully, lending standards have eased somewhat since then, but the index is still low. In April, the index was at 121, which is about one-seventh of what it was in 2006.

Why Did the Index Get out of Control During the Housing Bubble?

The main reason was the availability of loans with extremely weak lending standards. To keep up with demand in 2006, many mortgage lenders offered loans that put little emphasis on the eligibility of the borrower. Lenders were approving loans without always going through a verification process to confirm if the borrower would likely be able to repay the loan.

An example of the relaxed lending standards leading up to the housing crash is the FICO® credit score associated with a loan. What’s a FICO® score? The website myFICO explains:

“A credit score tells lenders about your creditworthiness (how likely you are to pay back a loan based on your credit history). It is calculated using the information in your credit reports. FICO® Scores are the standard for credit scores—used by 90% of top lenders.”

During the housing boom, many mortgages were written for borrowers with a FICO score under 620. While there are still some loan programs that allow for a 620 score, today’s lending standards are much tighter. Lending institutions overall are much more attentive about measuring risk when approving loans. According to the latest Household Debt and Credit Report from the New York Federal Reservethe median credit score on all mortgage loans originated in the first quarter of 2022 was 776.

The graph below shows the billions of dollars in mortgage money given annually to borrowers with a credit score under 620.

Why Home Loans Today Aren’t What They Were in the Past | MyKCMIn 2006, buyers with a score under 620 received $376 billion dollars in loans. In 2021, that number was only $80 billion, and it’s only $20 billion in the first quarter of 2022.

Bottom Line

In 2006, lending standards were much more relaxed with little evaluation done to measure a borrower’s potential to repay their loan. Today, standards are tighter, and the risk is reduced for both lenders and borrowers. These are two very different housing markets, and today is nothing like the last time.

Hackett Creek Two Bedroom Home in Rhododendron

by Liz Warren

You'll love this Mt. Hood  getaway above Hackett Creek in Rhododendron. Perfect for full time living or vacation home on the mountain. Two bedrooms and two baths with two fireplaces! It's had a lot of recent updates including all new interior paint, new carpeting, updated counter tops, new toilets and sinks, new carport roof and more! $480.000

Mt. Hood Cedar Chalet above Hackett Creek in Rhododendron

     Vaulted Ceilings and Fireplace in this Hackett Creek Cedar Chalet       Hackett Creek getaway with Deck and .4 acres of land

Hackett Creek in Mt. Hood Villages near Rhododendron

What's the Future of the Mt. Hood Real Estate Market?

by Liz Warren

What Does the Rest of the Year Hold for the Housing Market?

What Does the Rest of the Year Hold for the Housing Market? | MyKCM
 

If you’re thinking of buying or selling a house, you’re at an exciting decision point. And anytime you make a big decision like that, one thing you should always consider is timing. So, what does the rest of the year hold for the housing market? Here’s what experts have to say.

The Number of Homes Available for Sale Is Likely To Grow

There are early signs housing inventory is starting to grow and experts say that should continue in the months ahead. According to Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at realtor.com:

“The gap between this year’s homes for sale and last year’s is one-fifth the size that it was at the beginning of the year. The catch up is likely to continue, . . . This growth will mean more options for shoppers than they’ve had in a while, even though inventory continues to lag pre-pandemic normal.”

  • As a buyer, having more options is welcome news. Just remember, housing supply is still low, so be ready to act fast and put in your best offer up front.
  • As a seller, your house may soon face more competition when other sellers list their homes. But the good news is, if you’re also buying your next home, having more options to choose from should make that move-up process easier.

Mortgage Rates Will Likely Continue To Respond to Inflationary Pressures

Experts also agree inflation should continue to drive up mortgage rates, albeit more moderately. Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First Americansays:

“… ongoing inflationary pressure remains likely to push mortgage rates even higher in the months to come.”  

  • As a buyer, work with trusted real estate professionals, including your lender, so you can learn how rising mortgage rate environments impact your purchasing power. It may make sense to buy now before it costs more to do so, if you’re ready.
  • As a seller, rising mortgage rates are motivating some homeowners to make a move up sooner rather than later. If you’re planning to buy your next home, talk to a trusted real estate advisor to decide how to time your move.

Home Prices Are Projected To Continue To Climb

Home prices are forecast to keep appreciating because there are still fewer homes for sale than there are buyers in the market. That said, experts agree the pace of that appreciation should moderate – but home prices won’t fall. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), explains:

“Prices throughout the country have surged for the better part of two years, including in the first quarter of 2022. . . Given the extremely low inventory, we're unlikely to see price declines, but appreciation should slow in the coming months.” 

  • As a buyer, continued home price appreciation means it’ll cost you more to buy the longer you wait. But it also gives you peace of mind that, once you do buy a home, it will likely grow in value. That makes it historically a good investment and a strong hedge against inflation.
  • As a seller, price appreciation is great news for the value of your home. Again, lean on a professional to strike the right balance of the best conditions possible for both selling your house and buying your next one.

Bottom Line

Whether you’re a homebuyer or seller, you need to know what’s happening in the housing market, so you can make the most informed decision possible. Let’s connect to discuss your goals and what lies ahead, so you can pick your best time to make a move.

Custom Built Alaskan Knotty Cedar Two Bedroom Two Bath

by Liz Warren

Tucked away on a dead end street in Brightwood is this custom built gem of a home above the Sandy River. Two bedrooms and two baths plus den/office with bonus covered patio and hot tub. Low maintenance yard with steps to a path that takes you to your own park. The path takes you to the Sandy River  and unbelievable views of surrounding Cascade foothills. This home features rare Alaskan Knotty Cedar throughout the home. You'll never want to leave this great room with vaulted ceilings, skylights and tons of windows. The gourmet kitchen with gas stove looks over the living and dining room area. Hand storage and pantry area is right next to the kitchen. Big bonus is the over sized two car garage and pull down storage to stash your toys! $725,000

Great Room of Brightwood Custom home in Timberline Rim

Custom BuiltTwo Bedroom Two Bath Home Custom Built Alaskan Knotty Cedar Home Kitchen in Brightwood Oregon

June 4th Free Family Fishing Event on Mt. Hood!

by Liz Warren
 
Mt. Hood National Forest
Forest Service News Release
 
Free family fishing event June 4 east of Estacada
 
 
Join Mt. Hood National Forest for a day of fishing and family fun. This outdoor event will take place on Saturday, June 4 from 10:00- 3:00 at Small Fry Lake in Promontory Park, just east of Estacada. 
 
Fishing clinic participants can enjoy free fishing lessons, casting competitions, a contest for the largest fish, and other games. Loaner fishing poles and bait are available. Children 13 years and under must be accompanied by an adult. This is a great opportunity for families to learn how to fish together and spend time in the outdoors!
 
June 4-5 is a Free Fishing Weekend in Oregon, meaning no license or tag is necessary to fish these two days. For more information about state fishing licenses visit the OR Department of Fish and Wildlife.
 
Participants are encouraged to bring their own fishing gear if possible. Loaner fishing gear and bait will be available during the event. Please bring snacks and water and wear clothing appropriate for the weather. Bringing a cooler for hauling home your catch of the day is recommended.
 
This event is held in cooperation with the OR Department of Fish and Wildlife, PGE, US Fish & Wildlife Service, Trout Unlimited, and Timber Lake Job Corps.
 
 ###
 
USDA is an equal opportunity provider, employer, and lender.
 
 
Photo: Fishing clinic at Small Fry Lake at Promontory Park

 

Don’t Let Rising Inflation Delay Your Homeownership Plans INFOGRAPHIC] | MyKCM
 

Some Highlights

  • If recent headlines about rising inflation are making you wonder if it’s still a good time to buy, here’s what experts have to say.
  • Housing is an asset that typically grows in value. Plus, your mortgage helps stabilize your monthly housing costs, and buying protects you from rising rents.
  • Experts say owning a home is historically a good hedge against inflation. Let’s connect if you’re ready to start the homebuying process today.

Displaying blog entries 301-310 of 1923

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