June 4th Free Family Fishing Event on Mt. Hood!
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Although it's hard to believe as we sit under storm clouds and record breaking rain we are approaching our fire season on Mt. Hood. After power shut downs from past fires locals are way more prepared for what will come our way. I don't know any one who doesn't own a generator. This article from Fox 12 details new rules for power shut down notifications during wildfires.
Here are tips directly from the FEMA website:
The United States Fire Administration promotes simple ways to prevent a fire from affecting your home and community, including:
Be prepared in case you need to evacuate:
Another important thing to consider is buying flood insurance. After a wildfire, flood risk increases due to the inability of charred vegetation and soil to absorb water. Rainstorms after a wildfire lead to increased runoff down slopes and into channels, streams, and rivers. Flooding after fire can be fast, severe, and include mudflows as runoff picks up debris, ash, and sediment from the burn scar. Flood insurance can protect property owners from catastrophic financial impacts of flooding following a wildfire.
Wildfires can develop and spread quickly, leaving little time to get somewhere safe. Know what to do to keep yourself, your family, and your pets safe and take steps now to protect your future.
Last updated March 17, 2021
A recent article in Willamette Week states home prices in Rhododendron were up 47% over last year. Read article here. The article is about folks moving out of Portland for less expensive housing so they can qualify to buy. This seems to be happening everywhere. Notice there are three of our burgs on Mt. Hood listed in the chart below. These numbers are coming from Zillow based on comments in the article.
Recent RMLS statistics for the Mt. Hood area in March 2022 says our year over year for the entire area including Government Camp was 37.3%. If you add in another 10% for the 2020-2021 season, I can see where these numbers are coming from. I thought the Rhododendron comment was a little misleading under the main heading. These stats are for two years of sales vs. one year of sales.
Bears are waking up from hibernation and are becoming active in your area. At this time of year, these hungry bears will be trying to get into every food source they can, including garbage, old grills, birdfeeders, and anything else that smells like food. Take steps to avoid conflict with bears by removing bird feeders and securing attractants. A bear's strongest sense is smell and they can pick up a scent from over a mile away.
Don’t reward bears with easily available food (including birdseed), liquids, garbage and scraps from a barbeque or grill. Intentional or unintentional feeding of bears teaches them to approach homes and people. This is dangerous for humans and bears. Keep Bears Wild by following the BearWise basics above and sharing this information with your neighbors. A community effort will be more effective in preventing conflicts with bears. For more information on living with bears visit https://www.dfw.state.or.us/wildlife/living_with/black_bears.asp
Homeownership has become a major element in achieving the American Dream. A recent report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) finds that over 86% of buyers agree homeownership is still the American Dream.
Prior to the 1950s, less than half of the country owned their own home. However, after World War II, many returning veterans used the benefits afforded by the GI Bill to purchase a home. Since then, the percentage of homeowners throughout the country has increased to the current rate of 65.5%. That strong desire for homeownership has kept home values appreciating ever since. The graph below tracks home price appreciation since the end of World War II:
The graph shows the only time home values dropped significantly was during the housing boom and bust of 2006-2008. If you look at how prices spiked prior to 2006, it looks a bit like the current spike in prices over the past two years. That may lead some people to be concerned we’re about to see a similar fall in home values as we did when the bubble burst. To help alleviate those worries, let’s look at what happened last time and what’s happening today.
Back in 2006, foreclosures flooded the market. That drove down home values dramatically. The two main reasons for the flood of foreclosures were:
This cycle continued for years.
Here are two reasons today’s market is nothing like the one we experienced 15 years ago.
Running up to 2006, banks were creating artificial demand by lowering lending standards and making it easy for just about anyone to qualify for a home loan or refinance their current home. Today, purchasers and those refinancing a home face much higher standards from mortgage companies.
Data from the Urban Institute shows the amount of risk banks were willing to take on then as compared to now.
There’s always risk when a bank loans money. However, leading up to the housing crash 15 years ago, lending institutions took on much greater risks in both the person and the mortgage product offered. That led to mass defaults, foreclosures, and falling prices.
Today, the demand for homeownership is real. It’s generated by a re-evaluation of the importance of home due to a worldwide pandemic. Additionally, lending standards are much stricter in the current lending environment. Purchasers can afford the mortgage they’re taking on, so there’s little concern about possible defaults.
And if you’re worried about the number of people still in forbearance, you should know there’s no risk of that causing an upheaval in the housing market today. There won’t be a flood of foreclosures.
As mentioned above, when prices were rapidly escalating in the early 2000s, many thought it would never end. They started to borrow against the equity in their homes to finance new cars, boats, and vacations. When prices started to fall, many of these homeowners were underwater, leading some to abandon their homes. This increased the number of foreclosures.
Homeowners didn’t forget the lessons of the crash as prices skyrocketed over the last few years. Black Knight reports that tappable equity (the amount of equity available for homeowners to access before hitting a maximum 80% loan-to-value ratio, or LTV) has more than doubled compared to 2006 ($4.6 trillion to $9.9 trillion).
The latest Homeowner Equity Insights report from CoreLogic reveals that the average homeowner gained $55,300 in home equity over the past year alone. Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, reports:
“Homeowners in Q4 2021 had an average of $307,000 in equity - a historic high.”
ATTOM Data Services also reveals that 41.9% of all mortgaged homes have at least 50% equity. These homeowners will not face an underwater situation even if prices dip slightly. Today, homeowners are much more cautious.
The major reason for the housing crash 15 years ago was a tsunami of foreclosures. With much stricter mortgage standards and a historic level of homeowner equity, the fear of massive foreclosures impacting today’s market is not realistic.
Many homeowners who plan to sell in 2022 may think the wise thing to do is to wait for the spring buying market since historically about 40 percent of home sales occur between April and July. However, this year’s expected to be much different than the norm. Here are five reasons to list your house now rather than waiting until the spring.
The ShowingTime Showing Index reports data from more than six million property showings scheduled across the country each month. In other words, it’s a gauge of how many buyers are out looking at homes at the current time.
The latest index, which covers November showings, reveals that buyers are still very active in the market. Comparing this November’s numbers to previous years, this graph shows that the index is higher than last year and much higher than the three years prior to the pandemic. Clearly, there’s an influx of buyers searching for your home.
Also, at this time of year, only those purchasers who are serious about buying a home will be in the market. You and your loved ones won’t be inconvenienced by casual searchers. Freddie Mac addresses this in a recent blog:
“The buyers who are willing to house hunt in a winter market, when there are fewer options, are typically more serious. Plus, year-end bonuses and overtime payouts give people more purchasing power.”
And that theory is proving to be true right now based on the number of buyers who have put a home under contract to purchase. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) publishes a monthly Pending Home Sales Index which measures housing contract activity. It’s based on signed real estate contracts for existing single-family homes, condos, and co-ops. The latest index shows:
“…housing demand continues to be high. . . . Homes placed on the market for sale go from ‘listed status’ to ‘under contract’ in approximately 18 days.”
Comparing the index to previous Novembers, while it’s slightly below November 2020 (when sales were pushed to later in the year because of the pandemic), it’s well above the previous three years.
The takeaway for you: There are purchasers in the market, and they’re ready and willing to buy.
Mt. Hood real estate inventory sits at a total of six properties currently for sale! Three of these properties are over a million dollars. What better time to get top price and multiple offers for your property!
The law of supply and demand tells us that if you want the best price possible and to negotiate your ideal contract terms, put your house on the market when there’s strong demand and less competition.
A recent study by realtor.com reveals that, unlike in previous years, sellers plan to list their homes this winter instead of waiting until spring or summer. The study shows that 65% of sellers who plan to sell in 2022 have either already listed their home (19%) or are planning to put it on the market this winter.
Again, if you’re looking for the best price and the ability to best negotiate the other terms of the sale of your house, listing before this competition hits the market makes sense.
In 2020, there were over 979,000 new single-family housing units authorized by building permits. Many of those homes have yet to be built because of labor shortages and supply chain bottlenecks brought on by the pandemic. They will, however, be completed in 2022. That will create additional competition when you sell your house. Beating these newly constructed homes to the market is something you should consider to ensure your house gets as much attention from interested buyers as possible.
If you’re moving into a larger, more expensive home, consider doing it now. Prices are projected to appreciate by approximately 5% over the next 12 months. That means it will cost you more (both in down payment and mortgage payment) if you wait. You can also lock in your 30-year housing expense with a mortgage rate in the low 3’s right now. If you’re thinking of selling in 2022, you may want to do it now instead of waiting, as mortgage rates are forecast to rise throughout the year.
Consider why you’re thinking of selling in the first place and determine whether it’s worth waiting. Is waiting more important than being closer to your loved ones now? Is waiting more important than your health? Is waiting more important than having the space you truly need?
Only you know the answers to those questions. Take time to think about your goals and priorities as we move into 2022 and consider what’s most important to act on now.
If you’ve been debating whether or not to sell your house and are curious about market conditions in your area, let’s connect so you have expert advice on the best time to put your house on the market.
In case you missed this:
HAPPY NEW YEAR!
These are interesting times for Mt. Hood real estate as we head into 2022. After reviewing Novembers final sales we see a total of 18 closing with six sales under $400,000. Timberline Rim, one of the mountains most affordable subdivisions, saw five sales with three over a half a million dollars! November also produced the first $500,000 forest service cabin sale! More "off the chart" record breaking numbers were in Collins Lake at Government Camp. Three units have sold since July for $537,000, $557.000 and one at $606,000.
Needless to say, nearly every property that hits the market has five or more offers on the table making this the most amazing sellers market in Mt. Hood history. Two thousand twenty two will be very interesting if we don't get more inventory soon. Currently there are seven properties for sale and three are over a million dollars.
Recent snows may have slowed buyers down a little bit but the bottom line is once the current eleven pending sales close we will be down to nearly zero properties. Who knows what next year will look like at this point. This year we had a 30% increase in prices which was probably the greatest of all the areas tracked in our multiple listing. No doubt about it, Mt. Hood is the place to be!
Listed below are Novembers closed sales in Brightwood, Welches, Rhododendron and Government Camp.
December National News
U.S. Real Estate Overview
Note: November 2021 data below are the most recent released by the National Association of Realtors.
Existing-home sales rose in November, denoting three consecutive months of increases, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Three of the four major U.S. regions reported growth in monthly sales, while the fourth region held steady in November. From a year-over-year perspective, only one region experienced a rise in sales as the three others saw home sales decline.
Total existing-home sales (transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops) grew 1.9% from October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.46 million in November. Sales fell 2.0% from a year ago (6.59 million in November 2020).
Total housing inventory at the end of November amounted to 1.11 million units, down 9.8% from October and down 13.3% from one year ago (1.28 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 2.1-month supply at the current sales pace, a decline from both the prior month and from one year ago.
The median existing-home price for all housing types in November was $353,900, up 13.9% from November 2020 ($310,800), as prices increased in each region, with the highest pace of appreciation in the South region. This marks 117 straight months of year-over-year increases, the longest-running streak on record.
Properties typically remained on the market for 18 days in November, equal to October and down from 21 days in November 2020. Eighty-three percent of homes sold in November 2021 were on the market for less than a month.
In October, first-time buyers were responsible for 26% of sales in November, down from 29% in October and from 32% in November 2020. NAR's 2021 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers – released earlier this month – reported that the annual share of first-time buyers was 34%.
Investing in Real Estate
Today's low interest rates and rising home prices have created some great investment opportunities!
Investing in real estate has unique advantages over other types of investments. Let's take a look at some of the reasons why real estate investment should be on the "short list" for many investors:
Many investors are taking advantage of these great market conditions. Have questions? Give us a call. We are happy to help!
Are bi-weekly payments right for you?
Many people ask about bi-weekly payment plans designed to reduce the interest paid out over the course of your loan. These programs help the borrower budget an extra payment a year, and over time this can knock years off the repayment schedule.
Many people are surprised to learn that they can do this themselves without any special programs, simply by submitting an extra principal payment as they are able. By submitting an extra payment, you get the advantages of an early payout, without the extra contractual obligation. Want more information on other mortgage options?
Contact us today for our list of preferred local mortgage experts who can help you position yourself for a great year in 2020!
It's Now Much Easier to Buy A Home
Since the pandemic began, Americans have reevaluated the meaning of the word home. That’s led some renters to realize the many benefits of homeownership, including the feelings of security and stability and the financial benefits that come with rising home equity. At the same time, many current homeowners have decided their house no longer meets their needs, so they moved into homes with more space inside and out, including a home office for remote work.
However, not every purchaser has been able to fulfill their desire for a new home. Here are two obstacles some homebuyers are facing:
This past week, both of those challenges have been mitigated to some degree for many purchasers. The FHFA (which handles mortgages by Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, and the Federal Housing Administration) is raising its loan limit for prospective purchasers in 2022. The term used to describe the maximum loan amount they will entertain is the Conforming Loan Limit.
Investopedia explains the difference in a recent post:
“Conforming loans are the only loans that meet the requirements to be acquired by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Jumbo loans, which exceed the conforming limit, are the most common type of nonconforming loan.”
A Forbes article earlier this year explains the benefits of a conforming loan and why they exist:
“Since lenders can’t sell non-conforming loans to Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac to free up their cash, they’re a bit riskier for the lender. This is especially true for jumbo loans, which aren’t backed by any government guarantees. If you default on a jumbo loan, it’s a huge blow to the lender.
Thus, lenders generally charge higher interest rates to compensate, and they can have even more requirements. For example, lenders who give out jumbo loans often require that you make a down payment of at least 20% and show that you have at least six months’ worth of cash in reserve, if not more.”
The FHFA has significantly increased its Conforming Loan Limits for 2022. Sandra L. Thompson, FHFA Acting Director, explains in the press release that:
“Compared to previous years, the 2022 Conforming Loan Limits represent a significant increase due to the historic house price appreciation over the last year. While 95 percent of U.S. counties will be subject to the new baseline limit of $647,200, approximately 100 counties will have conforming loan limits approaching $1 million.”
This means that more homes now qualify for a conforming loan with lower down payment requirements and easier lending standards – the two challenges holding many buyers back over the last year.
The Federal Housing Administration (FHA) also increased its Conforming Loan Limits for 2022. That could also mean an easier path to homeownership for many prospective buyers. As the Forbes article explains:
“FHA loans can be very beneficial if you don’t have as much savings, or if your credit score could use some work.”
Buying your first or your next home may have just gotten much easier (less stringent qualifying standards) and less expensive (possibly lower mortgage rate). Let’s connect to discuss how these changes may impact you.
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