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More Updates On Foreclosures on Mt. Hood

Thursday, November 6, 2008
by Liz Warren

Looking to purchase a foreclosure in the Mt. Hood Area? foreclosures are popping up in Welches, Government Camp, Rhododendron and Brightwood.

Foreclosure and Short Sales Info

 

Over the last 24 months, Oregon went from number 2 to having the 23rd highest foreclosure rate on a national basis. As of September 2008 there have been 2,344 foreclosure filings which equivocate to 1 filing for every 644 housing units. Foreclosure filings are up 26% from August 08 and up 139% from September 2007. The majority of these distressed properties are located in the greater Portland metropolitan area. 

 

In comparison, the state of California, which accounts for ~60% nationally of all foreclosure activity has 69,548 properties with foreclosure filings, equivocating to 1 in every 189 housing units.  Washington has 1 foreclosure filing out of every 1,383 housing units.

 

Below are some comments from our partners that actively work in this arena.

 

  • Most properties in foreclosure are so debt laden that they are reverting to the banks. 
  • An investor interested in buying a foreclosed property on the courthouse steps is not likely to get a good deal.
  • Banks have not been discounting the debt on these properties in order to sell them. 
  • It can cost a bank anywhere from $30K-60K plus, to take back a house.  This doesn’t include the cost of capital, refurbishment, marketing and sales costs.
  • So why are banks taking the homes back?
  • Some banks have been bundling multiple properties, with varying degrees of debt-to-market value ratios and selling them to large, institutional buyers.  This seems to be easier and more profitable for the banks right now.
  • In Multnomah County, who is buying foreclosed properties at this time? There are a few larger, private equity buyers and some individual investors.
  • The SE & NE corridors have the greatest percentage of foreclosed properties at an average value of $125K-225K.  However, more expensive properties are now entering the picture.
  • So where are some of the opportunities now?  Short Sales.

Short Sales - An option for those who have money & the time.

 

A short sale is where a property owner wants to sell their home but they have a higher mortgage debt on the property than the price they can sell the house for. First, seller and buyer must agree on a price and then they go to the lender with comparable homes sales data to support the decline in value plus a compelling story and documentation that proves the seller does not have the funds to pay off the entire mortgage due.  Sound simple?  Not really.  Short Sales on average take 90-120 days to complete if successfully negotiated.  Clients and real estate brokers should work with a professional who knows the ropes. 

Investment property owners who sell under a Short Sale agreement should be aware of the new exclusionary rule coming that will tax all or a portion of the ‘gain’ the home seller realizes from a short sale closing.

 

 

 

A big thanks for sharing this information Kim:

Kim Dodge at Usher Financial (503) 595.1600

 

 

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Foreclosures on Mt. Hood

Thursday, October 23, 2008
by Liz Warren

Many buyers are searching for foreclosures in Government Camp, Welches, Rhododendron and Brightwood. The Mt. Hood area has relatively few foreclosures compared to other areas near the Portland metro area and Portland itself. The majority of homes that have shown up as foreclosures have been in the Timberline Rim subdivision.

Most of these foreclosed homes in Timberline Rim are under $300,000 and the majority fall in the low $200,000 range or less. When compared to subdivisions closer in such as in Sandy and the Happy Valley area, we have really not had the hard hits that many of these newer subdivisions have had. Lack of available land to develop with"new subdivisions" in the past couple of years has caused an escape from this problem.

foreclosures do bring  values down. Banks price these homes to go out the door. These foreclosure sales will be used as comparable for conventional loans. New lending rules require home sales in the past two to three months to be used as the comparables whether foreclosures or not.  They will help establish values for bank loans to buyers.This s the bad news.

The good news is that once the inventory of foreclosed homes are gone, existing home inventory gets adjusted to "market" and gets sold, values will stabilize and eventually we will be back to a more equal market for buyers and sellers.

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Recession on Mt. Hood?

Tuesday, October 21, 2008
by Liz Warren

Sales for Welches, Rhododendron, Government Camp and Brightwood in September hit a total of 10 accroding to the Market Action section of the RMLS, multiple listing service. Pending sales were down 33% and our total sales hit a decline of 11.5% for the year. 

On the ground we are seeing an average sale price decline and the upper end of the market from $500,000 on up has disappeared and completely flattened. This comes from a combination of things. A massive inventory, high interest rates for jumbo loans, the credit crunch taking lots of buyers out of this market and slower economic times.

The chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, Lawrence Yun and others see a recession through at least the next three quarters. Some areas of the country have already corrected back to 2002 and 2003 pricing levels. There is no doubt about it, our area needs to make this correction too in order to reduce inventory levels.

The biggest hoop to jump through as a seller and agent is the bank appraisal. foreclosures will be used for comparables and these sale prices will quickly adjust the market downward. This is a difficult pill to swallow for many sellers who are still thinking in terms of 2004 and 2005 but reality will strike so the sooner the adjustment is made the quicker the market will equalize.

It's an incredible time to buy properties if you qualify. Rates are still very low and with the amount of inventory available it's a feast of opportunity. We are fortunate to live in one of the most desirable areas of the country with a predicted quicker recovery than most states. The increased population to Oregon alone makes this a no brainer opportunity.

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Interest Rate and Economic Growth Predictions

Monday, August 25, 2008
by Liz Warren

 

Wonder what will happen with interest rates for the rest of the year and into 2009? Check out this chart for the NAR, National Association of Realtor's, and Freddie Macs predictions for the rest of 2008 and into 2009. Interest rates are still fantastic so it is a great time to buy.

 

Here are NAR's predictions for economic growth through 2009. See Chart Below--As far as real estate goes in the Mt. Hood area, Welches, Rhododendron, and Government Camp, things should be staying pretty much the same in our area as far as market conditions are concerned unless credit loosens up. Do I think that will happen soon? Honestly, no I don't.

Yes, there was a bill passed to help first time home buyers to receive a tax credit to help get them into homes. Unfortunately, most first time home-buyers are not starting out in our area due to commute and gas prices so this will not have an impact from what I can tell.

 

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July 3rd Report: Inventory is way up!

Thursday, July 3, 2008
by Liz Warren

Summer has finally hit the mountain with warm temps and hazy Northern California smoke interrupting our Mt. Hood views. Along with the smoke rolling in we are seeing increasing inventory of properties rolling in.  All price ranges are seeing jumps in active numbers. Take a look at the info below to see the current numbers.  Average days on market have hit 106 with a  22 month supply of homes currently for sale.  Of course some price ranges are moving better than others. The majority of the homes sold in the past twelve months were in the $225,000-$235,000 range.

If there was ever a great time to purchase on the mountain it is right now. Interest rates are historically screamingly low hovering at 6.3-6.5% and a large choice in inventory. It’s a buyer’s paradise.

We suspect as the 4th of July weekend moves on we will see the bargain hunters emerge.

Have a safe and happy 4th of July!

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Credit Crunch Changes The Game

Thursday, May 1, 2008
by Liz Warren

What will the credit crunch bring to today's market in the Welches, Rhododendron, Government Camp and Brightwood area?

1. Reduced equity lines of credit.

2.Removing subprime and Alt-A loans completely

3.Higher fees for loans that lenders do make.

Lending practices of the years 2002-2007 are over.

Results:

Builders will be building smaller homes.

Lenders will be lending much less money.

Buyers will be saving home and borrowing less.

Fewer buyers, fewer loan products, and higher loan costs create an even more competitive market for sellers and lowering  prices through that competition to sell.

 

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2007-Second Home and Investor Numbers Will Surprise You

Tuesday, April 1, 2008
by Liz Warren

This is a real eye opener considering 2007 reports on the market! Second home and investment buyers purchased about one third of properties sold in 2007 according to the National Association of Realtors. Vacation home sales only declined two percent from 2006 to 2007. (12% of total sales in 2007).

Despite the fact that we are in a credit crunch and in tough economic times, second homes are elective purchases. Locally we know that at least a third of homeowners in Portland have no mortgage. We also know that Oregon ranks 47th in the subprime problem-which means there is extra money available for purchasing second homes.

Actually, it’s a bonanza of an opportunity for buyers with super low interest rates, softening prices and increased inventory. Yes, primary home sales have softened the most but second home sales have not seen the declines locally that many media outlets have declared.

Believe it or not 28% of second home buyers paid cash for their purchase. Many second home  buyers are looking to purchase now knowing their investment will appreciate greatly in the next five to ten years. Portland metro has a particularly great opportunity with a recreational area so close to the city, many weekenders take advantage of the quick one hour drive making the Mt. Hood area a premium destination for a rec home that can be used year round.

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Oregon Trail School District Needs A New High School Desperately!

Thursday, February 14, 2008
by Liz Warren

The Oregon Trail School District has formed a Task Force who has been working very hard on the high school issues at hand. They are recommending a November 2008 bond election to build a new 1,600 student high school and improve safety, security, and deterioration issues at other district facilities.

To read about the bottom line and outline of what is needed you can download this pdf file of information.    

click here

If you have ever visited Sandy High School, you will understand why this is an urgent need not only for area children but this will help maintain a more stable and desirable community for the entire area from Sandy and Boring to Welches and Government Camp.

 

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Cumulative Days On Market

Wednesday, February 13, 2008
by Liz Warren

Gone are the days when agents would reenter a listing as new to draw attention to a property or to market it as "new" in the eyes of the public. The latest statistic for real estate agents straight from multiple listing is the "cumulative days on market" field.

Cumulative Days on Market  really tells the true story vs "days on market" since the property didn't sell the first time, this is the true marketing time. The true time from start to finish with a sale, with price adjustments, new agents or companies entering the picture: it's the whole enchilada.

Today's statistics show the inventory for Government Camp, Welches, Rhododendron, and Brightwood at around 87 properties for sale. We have a current 17 month supply of homes! Average days on market: 78 but cumulative days on market: 101. That's a 22% difference in perception.

Rather than going through the math at a painful pace through the history section, this simplifies the process.

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National Association of Realtors U.S. Economic Outlook as of May 2007

Thursday, May 10, 2007
by Liz Warren

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