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Mt. Hood Recession

Friday, March 6, 2009
by Liz Warren

Ok, so we are seeing effects of the recession all over the Mt. Hood area. Local retail shops are doing the best they can to stay afloat. We all try to purchase locally if possible to keep our fellow business owners out of the red.

Most notable recession fighters are the restaurants offering half price appetizers, two for ones, and early evening happy hour meals. It's working too. The bursts of winter snow storms have really helped the weekend traffic to our area. The mountain businesses were particularly hit hard due to no Thanksgiving snow and the chain of weather events that demolished the traditional winter break vacation hoardes that give our local businesses a huge shot in the arm.

How does this recession compare to others in our history? Take a look at these super charts I found online from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis to see how this recession compares to others we've had in the past 80 years.

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Listen Up Mt. Hood Buyers!

Friday, February 20, 2009
by Liz Warren

Is there light at the end of this tunnel? There are some major factors happening that are going to make buying a home on Mt. Hood VERY attractive this year. Recent reports coming from Moody's Economy are saying we may hit the bottom of this market by the end of 2009. This could be the first sighting of the bottom although history tells us, the bottom usually has already passed once we realize it.

The continual decline of prices, likely further reduced interest rates (some sources believe they will hit 4.5%), and the first time home buyer tax credit up to $8,000 will make this a premium buying opportunity. If you look at the larger metro declines averaged nationally, homes have lost around 25% and many areas are expected to continue to decline an additional 11% before stabilizing.

On the mountain, new listings for January and February have jumped up the inventory making an even more competitive atmosphere for home sellers. The increased inventory will make even more buying opportunities for purchasers who can make their move now.

For information about new listings or what is selling in today's market, give me a call or shoot me an email!

 

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Mt. Hood Market Lags National Trends

Thursday, February 5, 2009
by Liz Warren

The Mt. Hood real estate market has always lagged national trends. The Portland metro market survived 2007 fairly well and in 2008 the trend hit the metro area and has since, as the stock market declined and job losses increased, has slowed substantially.

Zillow.com a popular data mongering site tells us prices declined another 11.6% nationally last year. Some parts of California and Florida have seen price declines of 50% or more! The 4th quarter of 2008 equaled the losses of all of 2007! Sources tell us the peak to trough, which have not hit yet but predictions are that it will be in the 4th quarter of 2009, our national values will have declined around 36 to 40%! Peak market hit in 2006 and we are edging towards the bottom we hope.

Did you know that approximately 20% of home sales last year were foreclosures? Markets which had the greatest run ups are of course having the greatest declines- Bend, Or. Stockton, Calif., Las Vegas, Nv. The Stockton market will have a peak to trough decline of around 67%!

Market conditions are local. The majority of our local market is second homes. We could see a longer recovery and bottoming in our market because of the lag time we always experience. We were last to the party and probably the last to leave making me believe we may be pushed into 2010 for stabilization. The stimulus package may help us climb out of this excessive inventory situation sooner than later though! In general the Portland homeowner equities are large and therefore they may have a quicker stabilizing than other large metro areas. Unemployment numbers may keep us behind though.

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Months of Inventory

Tuesday, January 27, 2009
by Liz Warren

I keep bringing up what a super opportunity the mountain is offering in choice of inventory and interest rates and believe it or not, the entire market has a 52 month supply of homes for sale as of the end of December. If no other homes came on the market as of Januray 1st it would take 52 months to sell every home listed for sale! That is over a four year supply of homes.

I have never seen such a supply of homes  to choose from in Welches, Rhododendron or Government Camp! This is the perfect tsunami to purchase a primary, secondary or investment property that I have ever seen in 25 years.

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2008 Numbers

Saturday, January 17, 2009
by Liz Warren

The chart below tells the story of the 2008 sales numbers compared to 2007. These numbers tell the story of sales from Government Camp, Rhododendron, Welches and Brightwood.

Pending sales for the year were down 21% from the year before and total sales declined 10.5% from 2007. Total residential sales closed hit 117 and land sales totaled 8 for the year. There were 358 new listings last year. Doing the rough math a seller had a 33% chance of selling their property last year in general but there were definate segments of the market that did better than others. The median sales price was $234,000.

As job losses mount and prices keep declining, approximately 20% in major metro markets, 2009 will be an interesting year.

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How Are Land Sales on Mt. Hood?

Sunday, January 11, 2009
by Liz Warren

How were land sales on Mt. Hood over the 2008 year? Well, slowing to a snail's pace for the second half of the year! Sales totaled eight from Government Camp to Brightwood. Two sales closed in Government Camp with a high of $258,000 and the other at $186,900. As the economy went into a slump starting in July, there has been only one land sale for the second half of 2008.

There is only one pending sale for land in area 153. This is a Summit Meadows lot listed at $75,000 and well covered by tons of snow at the moment.

There are 43 parcels and lots currently offered for sale in our area! There are motivated sellers out there and deals to be had. Take advantage of today's opportunities and get your lot before they are all gone. With Portland's increasing population coming, there won't be any land left to purchase so now is the time to make your investment!

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Weather Beaten Market

Wednesday, January 7, 2009
by Liz Warren

No doubt about it, the crazy snow pilling up, melting snow and rain, falling trees and branches and a general lack of accessibility will be reflected in fewer pending and sold properties showing up in January. From Government Camp, which was buried with snow and constantly battling power outages closing down local ski areas to Welches, Brightwood and Rhododendron, it was a rough winter holiday season. People just couldn't get around on the roads let alone view properties.

The clean up has begun and most roads are easy to navigate so showings are happening and buyers are back. Rivers and creeks are dabbling at high water levels. Many basements are flooded and finally, everyone has their power back on.

As we shake all of this off, 2009 should be one for adjustments as major price reductions are rampant in the multiple listing service. Some owners have dropped their prices nearly 40% chasing the market down.

Buyers have rarely had so much inventory to choose from and with rates hovering around 5%, opportunity knocks!

FHA loans have increased their down payment qualifications to 3.5% down. FHA loans numbers have increased significantly from the past couple of years.

Speaking of incredible rates, this is currently causing a rush to refinance. Mortgage brokers are busy getting folks into incredibly affordable loans. If you have a lot of equity in your home, this is  a great time to pull that down payment out for a second home purchase.

Well, it's back to work for me now that the power and internet are working again!

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Oregon Trail School Bond Passes

Wednesday, November 12, 2008
by Liz Warren

Dr. Shelley Redinger , superintendent of the Oregon Trail School District sends this thank you:

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Negative Equity Numbers

Wednesday, November 12, 2008
by Liz Warren

wHow does the Mt. Hood area fair compare to other areas of the country as far as negative equity in homes? Well, I can't say specifically what happens on the mountain but it is a reflection of the general Oregon market. Sources such as First American CoreLogic says 18.3% of properties with mortgages are underwater. Most of these states are Nevada, Arizona, Florida and hard hit Michigan with the Detroit carnage.FAC says Oregon mortgages are at 7.5% underwater which, believe it or not is the 6th lowest percentage of all states. Washington is right behind us.

So, if you think it's bad around here-it isn't! It's GREAT compared to the rest of the U.S.!

Here's a little more info mapping the negative equity states from the Wall Street Journal.

 

 

 

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More Updates On Foreclosures on Mt. Hood

Thursday, November 6, 2008
by Liz Warren

Looking to purchase a foreclosure in the Mt. Hood Area? foreclosures are popping up in Welches, Government Camp, Rhododendron and Brightwood.

Foreclosure and Short Sales Info

 

Over the last 24 months, Oregon went from number 2 to having the 23rd highest foreclosure rate on a national basis. As of September 2008 there have been 2,344 foreclosure filings which equivocate to 1 filing for every 644 housing units. Foreclosure filings are up 26% from August 08 and up 139% from September 2007. The majority of these distressed properties are located in the greater Portland metropolitan area. 

 

In comparison, the state of California, which accounts for ~60% nationally of all foreclosure activity has 69,548 properties with foreclosure filings, equivocating to 1 in every 189 housing units.  Washington has 1 foreclosure filing out of every 1,383 housing units.

 

Below are some comments from our partners that actively work in this arena.

 

  • Most properties in foreclosure are so debt laden that they are reverting to the banks. 
  • An investor interested in buying a foreclosed property on the courthouse steps is not likely to get a good deal.
  • Banks have not been discounting the debt on these properties in order to sell them. 
  • It can cost a bank anywhere from $30K-60K plus, to take back a house.  This doesn’t include the cost of capital, refurbishment, marketing and sales costs.
  • So why are banks taking the homes back?
  • Some banks have been bundling multiple properties, with varying degrees of debt-to-market value ratios and selling them to large, institutional buyers.  This seems to be easier and more profitable for the banks right now.
  • In Multnomah County, who is buying foreclosed properties at this time? There are a few larger, private equity buyers and some individual investors.
  • The SE & NE corridors have the greatest percentage of foreclosed properties at an average value of $125K-225K.  However, more expensive properties are now entering the picture.
  • So where are some of the opportunities now?  Short Sales.

Short Sales - An option for those who have money & the time.

 

A short sale is where a property owner wants to sell their home but they have a higher mortgage debt on the property than the price they can sell the house for. First, seller and buyer must agree on a price and then they go to the lender with comparable homes sales data to support the decline in value plus a compelling story and documentation that proves the seller does not have the funds to pay off the entire mortgage due.  Sound simple?  Not really.  Short Sales on average take 90-120 days to complete if successfully negotiated.  Clients and real estate brokers should work with a professional who knows the ropes. 

Investment property owners who sell under a Short Sale agreement should be aware of the new exclusionary rule coming that will tax all or a portion of the ‘gain’ the home seller realizes from a short sale closing.

 

 

 

A big thanks for sharing this information Kim:

Kim Dodge at Usher Financial (503) 595.1600

 

 

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Displaying blog entries 771-780 of 793

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