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Housing Market and an Economic Slowdown

Thursday, July 7, 2022
by Liz Warren

What Does an Economic Slowdown Mean for the Housing Market?

What Does an Economic Slowdown Mean for the Housing Market? | MyKCM
 

According to a recent survey, more and more Americans are concerned about a possible recession. Those concerns were validated when the Federal Reserve met and confirmed they were strongly committed to bringing down inflation. And, in order to do so, they’d use their tools and influence to slow down the economy.

All of this brings up many fears and questions around how it might affect our lives, our jobs, and business overall. And one concern many Americans have is: how will this affect the housing market? We know how economic slowdowns have impacted home prices in the past, but how could this next slowdown affect real estate and the cost of financing a home?

According to Mortgage Specialists: 

“Throughout history, during a recessionary period, interest rates go up at the beginning of the recession. But in order to come out of a recession, interest rates are lowered to stimulate the economy moving forward.”

Here’s the data to back that up. If you look back at each recession going all the way to the early 1980s, here’s what happened to mortgage rates during those times (see chart below):

What Does an Economic Slowdown Mean for the Housing Market? | MyKCM

As the chart shows, historically, each time the economy slowed down, mortgage rates decreased. Fortune.com helps explain the trend like this:

“Over the past five recessions, mortgage rates have fallen an average of 1.8 percentage points from the peak seen during the recession to the trough. And in many cases, they continued to fall after the fact as it takes some time to turn things around even when the recession is technically over.”

And while history doesn’t always repeat itself, we can learn from it. While an economic slowdown needs to happen to help taper inflation, it hasn’t always been a bad thing for the housing market. Typically, it has meant that the cost to finance a home has gone down, and that’s a good thing. 

Bottom Line

Concerns of a recession are rising. As the economy slows down, history tells us this would likely mean lower mortgage rates for those looking to refinance or buy a home. While no one knows exactly what the future holds, you can make the right decision for you by working with a trusted real estate professional to get expert advice on what’s happening in the housing market and what that means for your homeownership goals.

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Mt. Hood Real Estate Voted Best Investment

Friday, July 1, 2022
by Liz Warren

Real Estate Consistently Voted Best Investment 

Real Estate Consistently Voted Best Investment [INFOGRAPHIC] | MyKCM
 

Some Highlights

  • Based on a recent Gallup poll, real estate has been rated the best long-term investment for nine years in a row.
  • Owning real estate is more than just a place to call home. It’s also an investment in your future. That’s because it’s typically a stable and secure asset that can grow in value over time.
  • If you’re ready to buy a home and invest in your future, let’s connect.
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Homeownership the American Dream

Thursday, June 30, 2022
by Liz Warren

           

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Forest Service News Release for Mt Hood Area and Independence Day

Tuesday, June 28, 2022
by Liz Warren
Forest Service News Release
 
Celebrate Safely this Independence Day
 
Summer has finally arrived, and Mt. Hood National Forest officials remind all those headed to public lands this Fourth of July weekend to take precautions to prevent wildfires and natural resource damage. While there are currently no campfire restrictions on Mt. Hood National Forest, campers and picnickers are encouraged to always plan carefully before starting a campfire.
 
Fireworks and explosives are never allowed on national forests, regardless of weather or conditions. Possessing, discharging, or using any kind of firework or other pyrotechnic device is prohibited; this includes smaller consumer fireworks such as sparklers, firecrackers, bottle rockets, and smoke balls. Violators can be subject to a maximum penalty of a $5,000 fine and/or up to six months in jail (36 CFR 261.52). Fireworks are also prohibited on other public lands managed by the Bureau of Land Management, National Park Service, and Oregon State Parks, as well as most county and city parks.
 
Abandoned or unattended campfires are the number one source of wildfires on public lands. If you are planning to have a campfire, please remember:
  • Keep your campfire small and away from flammable material.
  • Use a designated campfire ring when available.
  • Keep water and shovel nearby, and never leave a campfire unattended.
  • Completely extinguish your campfire by drowning your fire with water and stirring with a shovel.
  • Make sure your campfire is cold to the touch before leaving it – if it’s too hot to touch, it’s too hot to leave.
  • Portable fire pits and propane-fueled stoves with an “off” switch are a good alternative to campfires as they can be extinguished quickly.
 
More information about recreation sites, seasonal road closures, and areas impacted by wildfire damage is available on our website: www.fs.usda.gov/mthood.
 
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USDA is an equal opportunity provider, employer, and lender.
 
 
 
Mt. Hood National Forest
 
 
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Zig Zag Riverfront 1922 Cabin

Tuesday, June 28, 2022
by Liz Warren

Zig Zag Riverfront Cabin Built in 1922

     Stone Fireplace in Zig Zag Riverfront Cabin        Mt. Hood Cabin Primary Bedroom

Here's a great mountain getaway. Located in the Mt. Hood National Forest and only 10 minutes to skiing. You can forget the long lines of traffic trying to get to the slopes on the weekend. This charmer has a lot to offer. Two bedrooms, stone fireplace, comfortable great room with pellet stove and paned windows to enjoy the forest. Huge decks for barbecues too. $299,000

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Bear Issues on Mt. Hood

Monday, June 27, 2022
by Liz Warren

It appears there are increasing problems not only in the Mt. Hood area but in Hood River also. This information recently appeared concerning bears in the Hood River area and some tips from ODFW

Oregon Fish and Wildlife ODFW responds to garbage bear problems in Hood River area; Residents reminded it is against the law to feed wildlife in Oregon Black bears June 24, 2022 HOOD RIVER, Ore. – ODFW is urging residents in the Hood River area and other towns along the Cascades to take steps to prevent bear problems. The bears have torn down bird feeders, gotten into trash cans and a smoker, damaged fences and dug up gardens. The bears have been repeatedly seen around homes during the day and appear undeterred by efforts to haze them such as setting off car alarms or using other noise-making techniques. "Black bears are moving through neighborhoods in the Hood River area looking for a free meal," said Jeremy Thompson, ODFW district wildlife biologist based in The Dalles. "Garbage cans left unsecured and bird feeders are the main attractants that we’ve seen this spring." Once a bear gains access to human food or garbage and becomes habituated it can lose its natural fear of humans, which can lead to a variety of safety problems for both people and bears.

ODFW will not relocate bears it considers habituated, because these bears simply return or repeat the behavior elsewhere. "It’s unfortunate to have to put down a bear that is a public safety risk simply because it got easy access to food from people," added Thompson. It is illegal to either directly or indirectly feed bears (ORS 496.730) and can result in a criminal citation (Class A misdemeanor) by Oregon State Police.

Some basic safety tips include: Never feed bears. Store garbage cans in a garage or shed or purchase bear-resistant garbage cans if possible. Put garbage cans out just before pick-up. Keep pet food inside. Remove bird feeders. Keep BBQ grills and smokers clean or in garage. Clean up fruit under fruit trees. Keep all food stored outdoors (patio refrigerators, etc.) locked As bears are in the area,

ODFW also shares advice for what to do if you encounter a bear: STOP: Never approach a bear at any time for any reason. If you see bear cubs, leave the area. GIVE IT SPACE: Give any bear you encounter a way to escape. STAY CALM: Do not run or make sudden movements. Face the bear and slowly back away. AVOID EYE CONTACT: Don't make eye contact with the bear. DON'T RUN: It may encourage the bear to chase you. FIGHT BACK: In the unlikely event you are attacked, fight back, shout, be aggressive, use rocks, sticks and hands.

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Todays Housing Market Isn't in a Bubble on Mt. Hood

Monday, June 27, 2022
by Liz Warren

Two Reasons Why Today’s Housing Market Isn’t a Bubble on Mt. Hood

Two Reasons Why Today’s Housing Market Isn’t a Bubble | MyKCM
 

You may be reading headlines and hearing talk about a potential housing bubble or a crash, but it’s important to understand that the data and expert opinions tell a different story. A recent survey from Pulsenomics asked over one hundred housing market experts and real estate economists if they believe the housing market is in a bubble. The results indicate most experts don’t think that’s the case (see graph below):

Two Reasons Why Today’s Housing Market Isn’t a Bubble | MyKCMAs the graph shows, a strong majority (60%) said the real estate market is not currently in a bubble. In the same survey, experts give the following reasons why this isn’t like 2008:

  • The recent growth in home prices is because of demographics and low inventory
  • Credit risks are low because underwriting and lending standards are sound

If you’re concerned a crash may be coming, here’s a deep dive into those two key factors that should help ease your concerns.

1. Low Housing Inventory Is Causing Home Prices To Rise

The supply of homes available for sale needed to sustain a normal real estate market is approximately six months. Anything more than that is an overabundance and will causes prices to depreciate. Anything less than that is a shortage and will lead to continued price appreciation.

As the graph below shows, there were too many homes for sale from 2007 to 2010 (many of which were short sales and foreclosures), and that caused prices to tumble. Today, there’s still a shortage of inventory, which is causing ongoing home price appreciation (see graph below):

Two Reasons Why Today’s Housing Market Isn’t a Bubble | MyKCMInventory is nothing like the last time. Prices are rising because there’s a healthy demand for homeownership at the same time there’s a limited supply of homes for sale. Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, explains:

“The fundamentals driving house price growth in the U.S. remain intact. . . . The demand for homes continues to exceed the supply of homes for sale, which is keeping house price growth high.”

2. Mortgage Lending Standards Today Are Nothing Like the Last Time

During the housing bubble, it was much easier to get a mortgage than it is today. Here’s a graph showing the mortgage volume issued to purchasers with a credit score less than 620 during the housing boom, and the subsequent volume in the years after:

Two Reasons Why Today’s Housing Market Isn’t a Bubble | MyKCMThis graph helps show one element of why mortgage standards are nothing like they were the last time. Purchasers who acquired a mortgage over the last decade are much more qualified than they were in the years leading up to the crash. Realtor.com notes:

“. . . Lenders are giving mortgages only to the most qualified borrowers. These buyers are less likely to wind up in foreclosure.”

Bottom Line

A majority of experts agree we’re not in a housing bubble. That’s because home price growth is backed by strong housing market fundamentals and lending standards are much tighter today. If you have questions, let’s connect to discuss why today’s housing market is nothing like 2008.

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Hedging Inflation on Mt. Hood

Thursday, June 23, 2022
by Liz Warren

Homeownership Is a Great Hedge Against the Impact of Rising Inflation

Mt. Hood One Level Home
 

If you’re following along with the news today, you’ve heard about rising inflation. Today, inflation is at a 40-year high. According to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB):

“Consumer prices accelerated again in May as shelter, energy and food prices continued to surge at the fastest pace in decades. This marked the third straight month for inflation above an 8% rate and was the largest year-over-year gain since December 1981.”

With inflation rising, you’re likely feeling it impact your day-to-day life as prices go up for gas, groceries, and more. These climbing consumer costs can put a pinch on your wallet and make you re-evaluate any big purchases you have planned to ensure they’re still worthwhile.

If you’ve been thinking about purchasing a home this year, you’re probably wondering if you should continue down that path or if it makes more sense to wait. While the answer depends on your situation, here’s how homeownership can help you combat the rising costs that come with inflation.

Homeownership Helps You Stabilize One of Your Biggest Monthly Expenses

Investopedia explains that during a period of high inflation, prices rise across the board. That’s true for things like food, entertainment, and other goods and services, even housing. Both rental prices and home prices are on the rise. So, as a buyer, how can you protect yourself from increasing costs? The answer lies in homeownership.

Buying a home allows you to stabilize what’s typically your biggest monthly expense: your housing cost. When you have a fixed-rate mortgage on your home, you lock in your monthly payment for the duration of your loan, often 15 to 30 years. James Royal, Senior Wealth Management Reporter at Bankrate, says:

“A fixed-rate mortgage allows you to maintain the biggest portion of housing expenses at the same payment. Sure, property taxes will rise and other expenses may creep up, but your monthly housing payment remains the same. That’s certainly not the case if you’re renting.”

So even if other prices increase, your housing payment will be a reliable amount that can help keep your budget in check. If you rent, you don’t have that same benefit, and you won’t be protected from rising housing costs.

Investing in an Asset That Historically Outperforms Inflation

While it’s true rising home prices and higher mortgage rates mean that buying a house today costs more than it did even a few months ago, you still have an opportunity to set yourself up for a long-term win. That’s because, in inflationary times, you want to be invested in an asset that outperforms inflation and typically holds or grows in value.

The graph below shows how the average home price appreciation outperformed the average inflation rate in most decades going all the way back to the seventies – making homeownership a historically strong hedge against inflation (see graph below):

Homeownership Is a Great Hedge Against the Impact of Rising Inflation | MyKCM

So, what does that mean for you? Today, experts forecast home prices will only go up from here thanks to the ongoing imbalance of supply and demand. Once you buy a house, any home price appreciation that does occur will grow your equity and your net worth. And since homes are typically assets that grow in value, you have peace of mind that history shows your investment is a strong one.

That means, if you’re ready and able, it makes sense to buy today before prices rise further.

Bottom Line

If you’ve been thinking about buying a home this year, it makes sense to act soon, even with inflation rising. That way you can stabilize your monthly housing cost and invest in an asset that historically outperforms inflation. If you’re ready to get started, let’s connect so you have expert advice on your specific situation when you’re ready to buy a home.

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Home Equity Gains on Mt. Hood

Tuesday, June 21, 2022
by Liz Warren

The Average Homeowner Gained $64K in Equity over the Past Year

The Average Homeowner Gained $64K in Equity over the Past Year | MyKCM
 

If you own a home, your net worth likely just got a big boost thanks to rising home equity. Equity is the current value of your home minus what you owe on the loan. And today, based on recent home price appreciation, you’re building that equity far faster than you may expect – here’s how it works.

Because there’s an ongoing imbalance between the number of homes available for sale and the number of buyers looking to make a purchase, home prices are on the rise. That means your home is worth more in today’s market because it’s in high demand. As Patrick Dodd, President and CEO of CoreLogic, explains:

“Price growth is the key ingredient for the creation of home equity wealth. . . . This has led to the largest one-year gain in average home equity wealth for owners. . . .”

Basically, because your home value has likely climbed so much, your equity has increased too. According to the latest Homeowner Equity Insights from CoreLogic, the average homeowner’s equity has grown by $64,000 over the last 12 months.

While that’s the nationwide number, if you want to know what’s happening in your area, look at the map below. It breaks down the average year-over-year equity growth for each state using the data from CoreLogic.

The Average Homeowner Gained $64K in Equity over the Past Year | MyKCM

The Opportunity Your Rising Home Equity Provides

In addition to building your overall net worth, equity can also help you achieve other goals like buying your next home. When you sell your current house, the equity you built up comes back to you in the sale. In a market where homeowners are gaining so much equity, it may be just what you need to cover a large portion – if not all – of the down payment on your next home.

So, if you’ve been holding off on selling or you’re worried about being priced out of your next home because of today’s ongoing home price appreciation, rest assured your equity can help fuel your move.

Bottom Line

If you’re planning to make a move, the equity you’ve gained can make a big impact. To find out just how much equity you have in your current home and how you can use it to fuel your next purchase, let’s connect so you can get a professional equity assessment report on your house.

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We're Up to 23 Listings on Mt. Hood!

Sunday, June 19, 2022
by Liz Warren

More Listings coming to Mt. Hood real estate market

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Displaying blog entries 291-300 of 756

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