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Is the Housing Market Going To Crash? Here’s What Experts Say

Monday, October 20, 2025
by Liz Warren

Is the Housing Market Going To Crash? Here’s What Experts Say



 

If you’ve seen headlines or social posts calling for a housing crash, it’s easy to wonder if home values are about to take a hit. But here’s the simple truth.

The data doesn’t point to a crash. It points to slow, continued growth.

And sure, it’s going to vary by local area. Some markets will see prices rise more than others. And some may even see small, short-term declines. But the big picture is: home prices are expected to rise nationally, not fall, over the next 5 years.

The Real Story Is in the Expert Forecasts

In the Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES) from Fannie Mae, each quarter over 100 leading housing market experts weigh in on where they project home prices will go from here. And in the report that was just released, the experts agree prices are projected to climb nationally through at least 2029 (see graph below):

a graph of green squaresHere’s how to read this visual. Each bar in that graph shows an increase, not a loss. It’s just that the anticipated pace of that appreciation varies year-to-year.

And to further drive this home, let’s look at another view of where prices are and where they’re expected to go. In this version, the expert forecasts are broken into 3 categories: the overall average, the most optimistic projections, and the most pessimistic projections (see chart below):

a graph on a blue backgroundNotice how even the most pessimistic forecasters say we’ll see prices rise by almost 5% over the next few years.

  • Overall, prices are expected to rise about 15% from now through the end of 2029.
  • The optimists say we’ll beat that and see a roughly 26% increase.
  • And even the pessimists anticipate prices will go up by 5% during that period.

What sticks out the most? None of these groups who study the market are forecasting a crash, or even a decline, over the next 5 years.

How This Compares to “Normal” for the Market

Now, focus back on the first graph. The projections call for 2-3.5% price increases in each of the next five years. For context, the average rate of appreciation for the last 25 years was closer to 4-5% annually.

So, while that’s slightly below the historical average, it’s much more sustainable and typical than where the market was in 2020, 2021, and 2022.

Back then, prices rose too much, too fast based on record-low supply and record-high demand. Some places even saw prices climb by 15-20%.

So, while it may feel like prices are stalling compared to those pandemic-era surges, what’s really happening is that the market is finally finding balance again.

Why Prices Aren’t Expected To Crash

A lot of the chatter about home prices today is based on that rapid rise and the old saying that what goes up, must come down. But historically, that’s not really true. Home prices almost always rise.

And the main reason we’re not heading for a repeat of 2008 is simple: supply and demand.

Even though affordability challenges have made it harder for some people to buy over the past few years, there still aren’t enough homes for everyone who wants one. And that ongoing shortage is keeping upward pressure on prices nationally. 

That’s why experts across the board can confidently agree: we’re not headed for a price collapse, but for steady, long-term appreciation.

And just in case it’s the economy that’s got you worried, remember this. Over the past 50 years, there have been plenty of economic events that have impacted the market. And one thing that’s consistently been true throughout time is the housing market always recovers. And we’re coming through that turn right now and going into a recovery.

Bottom Line

If you’ve been waiting to buy or sell because you’re worried about a crash, it’s time to look at the data – not the headlines.

The question isn’t if home prices will rise, it’s by how much.

Let’s connect so you know what’s happening in our local market and what these forecasts mean for your next move.

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Forecast for Home Sales in 2026

Wednesday, October 15, 2025
by Liz Warren

2026 Housing Market Outlook



 

After a couple of years where the housing market felt stuck in neutral, 2026 may be the year things shift back into gear. Expert forecasts show more people are expected to move – and that could open the door for you to do the same.

More Homes Will Sell

With all of the affordability challenges at play over the past few years, many would-be movers pressed pause. But that pause button isn’t going to last forever. There are always people who need to move. And experts think more of them will start to act in 2026 (see graph below):

a graph of a graph showing the number of the company's salesWhat’s behind the change? Two key factors: mortgage rates and home prices. Let’s dive into the latest expert forecasts for both, so you can see why more people are expected to move next year.

Mortgage Rates Could Continue To Ease

The #1 thing just about every buyer has been looking for is lower mortgage rates. And after peaking near 7% earlier this year, rates have started to ease.

The latest forecasts show that could continue throughout 2026, but it won’t be a straight line down (see graph below):

a graph with numbers and linesThere’s a saying: when rates go up, they take the escalator. But when they come down, they take the stairs. And that’s an important thing to remember. It’ll be a slow and bumpy process.

Expect modest improvement in mortgage rates over the next year but be ready for some volatility. There will be volatility along the way as new economic data comes out. Just don't let it distract you from the bigger picture: the overall trend will be a slight decline. Forecasts say we could hit the low 6s, or maybe even the high 5s.

And remember, there doesn't have to be a big drop for you to feel a change. Even a smaller dip helps your bottom line.

If you compare where rates are now to when they were at 7% earlier this year, you’re already saving hundreds on your future mortgage payment. And that’s a really good thing. It’s enough to make a real difference in affordability for some buyers.

Home Price Growth Will Be Moderate

What about prices? On a national scale, forecasts say they’re still going to rise, just not by a lot. With rates down from their peak earlier this year, more buyers will re-enter the market. And that increased demand will keep some upward pressure on prices nationally – and prevent prices from tumbling down.

So, even though some markets are already seeing slight price declines, you can rest easy that a big crash just isn’t in the cards. Thanks to how much prices rose over the last 5 years, even the markets seeing declines right now are still up compared to just a few years ago.

Of course, price trends will depend on where you are and what’s happening in your local market. Inventory is a big driver in why some places are going to see varying levels of appreciation going forward. But experts agree we’ll see prices grow at the national level (see graph below): 

a graph of green rectangular objectsThis is yet another good sign for buyers and overall affordability. While prices will still go up nationally, it’ll be at a much more sustainable pace. And that predictability makes it easier to plan your budget. It also gives you peace of mind that prices won’t suddenly skyrocket overnight.

Bottom Line

After a quieter couple of years, 2026 is expected to bring more movement – and more opportunity. With sales projected to rise, mortgage rates trending lower, and price growth slowing down, the stage is set for a healthier, more active market.

So, the big question: will you be one of the movers making 2026 your year?

Let’s connect if you want to get ready.

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One in Five Home Sellers Are Cutting Their Price

Tuesday, October 14, 2025
by Liz Warren

          

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Statistics For Mt. Hood From September RMLS

Thursday, October 9, 2025
by Liz Warren

  Mt. Hood Real Estate Info for September 2025 From RMLS

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Statistics For Mt. Hood From September RMLS

Thursday, October 9, 2025
by Liz Warren

  Mt. Hood Real Estate Info for September 2025 From RMLS

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Don’t Let Unrealistic Pricing Cost You Your Move

Thursday, October 9, 2025
by Liz Warren

Don’t Let Unrealistic Pricing Cost You Your Move on Mt. Hood



 

These days, you’re going to want to get your price right when you get ready to sell your house. Honestly, it’s more important than ever. Why? While you may want to list high just to see what happens, that’s a plan that can easily backfire, and it’s going to cost you in today’s market.

And the risk isn’t just missing out on offers, it’s missing out on the move you needed to make in the first place.

The Real Pitfall of Overpricing

Many homeowners remember what their neighbor’s house sold for a few years ago, and they want to chase that same sky-high number. The problem is, that was a different market.

Today, there are more homes for sale. Buyers have more options to choose from. They don’t have to get into bidding wars where they offer way over asking just to compete. Now they can come in at, or even below, list price. And if you’re not open to that, they’ll move on. Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, explains:

“Buyers will have more leverage in many, but not all, markets. Sellers will need to adjust price expectations to reflect the transitioning market.”

But here’s the good news. You still have one big advantage as a seller. According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), home values went up by a staggering 54% over the last 5 years. So, even if you compromise just a little bit on your sale price today, odds are you’ll still come out way ahead.

The challenge? Most sellers aren’t thinking about it that way. They’re stuck on what a neighbor got months or years ago – and that’s a costly mistake.

Overpricing Can Stall Your Whole Move

Here’s what happens. A seller lists too high. Buyers stay away. No offers come in. The house sits. And suddenly, that seller is facing a tough decision. Do they cut the price? Stick it out? Or give up altogether?

Unfortunately, a late price cut may not be enough. Buyers often see that as a red flag that something’s wrong with the house. That’s why some sellers are opting to just pull their listing off the market entirely.

In a recent survey from John Burns Research and Consulting (JBREC) and Keeping Current Matters (KCM) over half of agents (54%) say there are more homes being taken off the market than usual.

a graph of a number of blue squaresAnd the top reasons for that? According to the agents, homeowners didn’t get any offers they felt were fair. The survey from JBREC and KCM explains it like this:

“Sellers holding onto high price expectations is the leading reason they are delisting their homes.”

BrightMLS data backs this up:

“. . . sellers are delisting after having their home on the market and finding they are not getting the price they hoped for.”

It’s more proof pricing too high does more than turn buyers away, it puts your whole move at risk. Because if no one looks at your home or makes an offer, how are you going to sell it?

The Secret To Making Your Move Happen

If you’re selling to relocate for a job, need more space for your growing family, or have to be closer to your relatives as they age, you can’t afford to get stuck. You need a pricing strategy that helps you move forward – and that starts with the right agent.

The sellers who are winning right now are the ones working with experienced local agents who know the current market and aren’t afraid to have honest conversations about price.

And it’s paying off. In the right price range and condition, homes are still selling fast, sometimes even with multiple offers.

Bottom Line

Pricing your house for today’s market isn’t just about getting it sold. It’s about making sure your move doesn’t stall before it starts.

Let’s talk through what buyers are really paying right now in our local area, and how to price your home to match.

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Mortgage Rates Should Ease Over the Next Year

Monday, October 6, 2025
by Liz Warren

Why Experts Say Mortgage Rates Should Ease Over the Next Year



 

You want mortgage rates to fall – and they've started to. But is it going to last? And how low will they go?

Experts say there’s room for rates to come down even more over the next year. And one of the leading indicators to watch is the 10-year treasury yield. Here's why.

The Link Between Mortgage Rates and the 10-Year Treasury Yield

For over 50 years, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has closely followed the movement of the 10-year treasury yield, which is a widely watched benchmark for long-term interest rates (see graph below):

a graph of a graph showing the rise of a mortgage rateWhen the treasury yield climbs, mortgage rates tend to follow. And when the yield falls, mortgage rates typically come down.

It’s been a predictable pattern for over 50 years. So predictable, that there’s a number experts consider normal for the gap between the two. It’s known as the spread, and it usually averages about 1.76 percentage points, or what you sometimes hear as 176 basis points.

The Spread Is Shrinking

Over the past couple of years, though, that spread has been much wider than normal. Why? Think of the spread as a measure of fear in the market. When there’s lingering uncertainty in the economy, the gap widens beyond its usual norm. That’s one of the reasons why mortgage rates have been unusually high over the past few years.

But here’s a sign for optimism. Even though there’s still some lingering uncertainty related to the economy, that spread is starting to shrink as the path forward is becoming clearer (see graph below):

a graph of a chartAnd that opens the door for mortgage rates to come down even more. As a recent article from Redfin explains:

“A lower mortgage spread equals lower mortgage rates. If the spread continues to decline, mortgage rates could fall more than they already have.”

The 10-Year Treasury Yield Is Expected To Decline

It’s not just the spread, though. The 10-year treasury yield itself is also forecast to come down in the months ahead. So, when you combine a lower yield with a narrowing spread, you have two key forces potentially pushing mortgage rates down going into next year.

This long-term relationship is a big reason why you see experts currently projecting mortgage rates will ease, with a fringe possibility they’ll hit the upper 5s toward the end of next year.

Here's how it works. Take the 10-year treasury yield, which is sitting at about 4.09% at the time this article is being written, and then add the average spread of 1.76%. From there, you’d expect mortgage rates to be around 5.85% (see graph below):

a graph of a chartBut remember, all of that can change as the economy shifts. And know for certain that there will be ups and downs along the way. 

How these dynamics play out will depend on where the economy, the job market, inflation, and more go from here. But the 2026 outlook is currently expected to be a gradual mortgage rate decline. And as of now, things are starting to move in the right direction.

Bottom Line

Keeping up with all of these shifts can feel overwhelming. That’s why having an experienced agent or lender on your side matters. They’ll do the heavy lifting for you.

If you want real-time updates on mortgage rates, let's connect so you have someone to keep you in the loop and help you plan your next move.

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Attention: Steiner Log Home Enthusiasts on Mt. Hood

Friday, September 26, 2025
by Liz Warren

Attention: Steiner Log Home Enthusiasts on Mt. Hood

 

A recent article in the Oregonian by Janet Eastman brings attention to a new book in process highlighting the stories of the Mt. Hood Steiner cabins scattered throughout the area during the depression era.

 

From the article,

 

Fans of the fabled Mount Hood log cabins hand built by the resourceful Steiner family take note: A coffee table book, expected to be released next year, will have photos and stories about the sturdy, artistic homes made with trees, stones and few store-bought items during the Great Depression and World War II.

 

 

A preview of the book titled “Steiner Cabins: History and Style of a Mt. Hood Icon” will be presented at a free Steiner Cabins Celebration Open House from 1 p.m. to 3:30 p.m. Saturday, Oct. 18, at The Mt. Hood Cultural Center & Museum in Government Camp.

 

A free open house is scheduled for October 18th from 1:00 to 3:30 at the Mt. Hood Cultural Center and Museum where guest filmmaker and speaker Ian McCluskey will discuss his own restoration of a Steiner and the stories and details of the future book. Local architectural photographer Chris Brown features photos in the book.

Many more details may be found in the Oregonian article link below! Hit the photo to access.

 

 

 
 

 

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Why Buyers and Sellers Face Very Different Conditions Today

Friday, September 26, 2025
by Liz Warren

Why Buyers and Sellers Face Very Different Conditions Today



 

There’s a new divide in housing right now. In some states, buyers are gaining ground. In others, sellers still have the upper hand. It all depends on where you live. Curious what's happening in your state?

These 3 maps show how the split is playing out across the country. In each one:

  • Darker Shades of Blue = Buyer friendly
  • Lighter Shades of Blue = Seller strong

Inventory Sets the Stage

While the number of homes for sale has improved pretty much across the board, how much growth we’ve seen can look dramatically different based on where you live. And that impacts who has the leverage today.

This map uses data from Realtor.com to break it down:

  • The darker shades of blue show where inventory has risen more than in other areas of the country. Buyers here have more to choose from and should have an easier time finding a home and leveraging their negotiating power.
  • The lighter shades of blue are where inventory is still low. Sellers are more likely to sell quickly and make fewer concessions.

Prices Follow Inventory

The second map tracks how home prices are shifting by state. Just like above, you can see the divide taking shape. Many of the same areas are darker blue. That’s because there’s such a close tie between inventory and prices. When inventory rises, prices moderate.

  • The darker shades of blue are where prices are actually coming down slightly or flattening. Because, with more homes for sale, sellers may have to cut their price or throw in concessions to get a deal done. And that benefits budget-conscious buyers.
  • The lighter shades of blue show areas where prices are still climbing because inventory is low. Sellers may still see buyers competing for homes, and that pushes prices higher.

Time on Market Tells the Same Story

Finally, here’s how quickly homes are selling state by state. See the colors? For the most part, they follow the same general pattern with a lot of the darker blues being in the lower half of the country. And here’s why.

Generally speaking, as inventory grows, homes don’t sell as quickly. That’s why some of the same areas that have more inventory, see homes take more time to sell. 

  • The darker blues show where homes are staying on the market longer. That gives buyers more time and options, and signals sellers may need to adjust their expectations.
  • The lighter blues are where homes are still moving quickly. Sellers there may feel more confident, and buyers may need to act fast.

a map of the united statesThis explains why some sellers in these darker blue states are feeling frustrated when their listings linger, while others in tighter markets (like the lighter blue states) are still seeing their homes sell quickly.

Why an Agent’s Local Expertise Is the Key To Unlocking Today’s Market

Basically, the housing market is experiencing a divide. And conditions are going to vary a lot based on where you live, where you’re moving, and if you’re buying or selling. While the state-level information helps, what really matters is what’s happening in your town and your neighborhood. And only a local agent truly has the information you need.

Bottom Line

Want to know what conditions look like in your neighborhood?

If you want to understand which side of the market you’re on, let’s connect. We can walk through the numbers and what they mean for your next move.

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79% of Homeowners Wish They Sold Sooner

Tuesday, September 23, 2025
by Liz Warren

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Displaying blog entries 1-10 of 1951

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