The Mt. Hood real estate market has always lagged national trends. The Portland metro market survived 2007 fairly well and in 2008 the trend hit the metro area and has since, as the stock market declined and job losses increased, has slowed substantially.

Zillow.com a popular data mongering site tells us prices declined another 11.6% nationally last year. Some parts of California and Florida have seen price declines of 50% or more! The 4th quarter of 2008 equaled the losses of all of 2007! Sources tell us the peak to trough, which have not hit yet but predictions are that it will be in the 4th quarter of 2009, our national values will have declined around 36 to 40%! Peak market hit in 2006 and we are edging towards the bottom we hope.

Did you know that approximately 20% of home sales last year were foreclosures? Markets which had the greatest run ups are of course having the greatest declines- Bend, Or. Stockton, Calif., Las Vegas, Nv. The Stockton market will have a peak to trough decline of around 67%!

Market conditions are local. The majority of our local market is second homes. We could see a longer recovery and bottoming in our market because of the lag time we always experience. We were last to the party and probably the last to leave making me believe we may be pushed into 2010 for stabilization. The stimulus package may help us climb out of this excessive inventory situation sooner than later though! In general the Portland homeowner equities are large and therefore they may have a quicker stabilizing than other large metro areas. Unemployment numbers may keep us behind though.