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What Are the Top 3 Housing Market Questions on Your Mind?

Tuesday, November 28, 2023
by Liz Warren

What Are The Top 3 Housing Market Questions on Your Mind?



 

When it comes to what’s happening in the housing market, there’s a lot of confusion going around right now. You may hear one thing in conversation with your friends, see something totally different on the news, and read something on social media that contradicts both of those thoughts. And, if you’re thinking about making a move, that can leave you with a lot of lingering questions. That’s where a trusted local real estate agent comes in.

Here are the top 3 questions people are asking about today’s housing market, and the data to help answer them.

1. What’s Next for Mortgage Rates?

Mortgage rates are higher than they’ve been in recent years. And, if you’re looking to buy a home, that impacts how much you can afford. That’s why so many buyers want to know what’s ahead for mortgage rates. The answer to that question is: no one can say for certain, but here’s what we know based on historical trends.

There’s a long-standing relationship between mortgage rates and inflation. Basically, when inflation is high, mortgage rates tend to follow suit. Over the past year, inflation was up, so mortgage rates were as well. But inflation is easing now. And this is why the Federal Reserve has recently paused their federal funds rate hikes, which means many experts believe mortgage rates will begin to come down.

And in some ways, we’ve started to see hints of slightly lower mortgage rates in recent weeks. But it’s certainly been volatile and will likely continue to be that way going into next year. Some ongoing variation is to be expected, but the anticipation is, that in 2024, we’ll see a downward trend. As Aziz Sunderji, Strategist at Home Economics, says:

“The bottom line is that interest rates are likely to be lower-perhaps even lower than many optimists think - in the weeks and months to come.”

2. Where Are Home Prices Headed?

While there’s been a lot of concern prices would come crashing down this year, data shows that didn’t happen. In fact, home prices are rising in most of the nation. Experts say that trend will continue, just at a slower pace that’s much more normal for the housing market – and that’s a good thing.

To help show just how confident experts are in this continued appreciation, take a look at the Home Price Expectation Survey from Pulsenomics. It’s a survey of a national panel of over 100 economists, real estate experts, and investment and market strategists. As the graph below shows, the consensus is, that prices will keep climbing next year, and in the years to come.

 

 

3. Is a Recession Around the Corner?

While recession talk has been a common thing over the past few years, there’s good news on that front.

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) polls experts on this topic regularly. And last year at this time, most of them thought a recession would have happened by now. But as experts look at all the leading indicators today, they’re changing their minds and saying a recession is getting less and less likely. The latest results show that more experts now think we’re not headed for another recession (see chart below):

 

 

This is big news for the housing market. And while the 48% to 52% split may seem close to half and half, the key thing to focus on is that the majority of these experts think we’ve avoided a recession already.

Bottom Line

The big takeaway? The data shows there isn’t cause for concern – there are actually more signs of hope. Let’s connect to talk more about the housing market questions on your mind as we head into the new year. 

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Is Wall Street Buying Up All the Homes in America?

Monday, November 27, 2023
by Liz Warren

Is Wall Street Buying Up All the Homes in America?



 

If you’re thinking about buying a home, you may find yourself interested in the latest real estate headlines so you can have a pulse on all of the things that could impact your decision. If that’s the case, you’ve probably heard mention of investors, and wondered how they’re impacting the housing market right now. That could leave you asking yourself questions like:

  • How many homes do investors own?
  • Are institutional investors, like large Wall Street Firms, really buying up so many homes that the average person can’t find one?

To answer those questions, here’s the real story of what’s happening based on the data.  

Let’s start with establishing how many single-family homes (SFHs) there are and what portion of those are rentals owned by investors. According to SFR Investor, which studies the single-family rental market in the United States, there are eighty-two million single-family homes in this country. But how many of them are actually rentals?

According to data shared in a recent post, sixty-eight million (82.93%) of those homes are owner-occupied – meaning the person who owns the home lives in it. If you subtract that sixty-eight million from the total number of single-family homes (82 million), that leaves just about fourteen million homes left that are single-family rentals (SFRs).

Do institutional investors own all of those remaining fourteen million homes? Not even close. Let’s take it one step further. There are four categories of investors:

  • The mom & pop investor who owns between 1-9 SFRs
  • The regional investor who owns between 10-99 SFRs
  • Smaller national investor who owns between 100-999 SFRs
  • The institutional investor who owns over 1,000 SFRs

These categories show that not all investors are large institutional investors. To help convey that even more clearly, here are the percentages of rental homes owned by each type of investor (see chart below):

 

 

As you can see in the chart, despite what the news and social media would have you believe, the green shows the vast majority are not owned by large institutional investors. Instead, most are owned by small mom & pop investors, like your friends and neighbors.

What’s actually happening is, that there are people out there, just like you, who believe in homeownership, and they view buying a home (or a second home) as an investment. Maybe they saw an opportunity to buy a second home over the last few years to use it as a rental and generate additional income. Or maybe they just decided to keep their first house rather than sell it when they moved up.

So, don’t believe everything you read or hear about institutional investors. They aren’t buying up all the homes and making it impossible for the average person to buy. That’s just not what the numbers show. Institutional investors are actually the smallest piece of the pie chart.

Bottom Line

While it’s true that institutional investors are a player in the single-family rental marketplace, they’re not buying up all of the houses on the market. If you have other questions about things you’re hearing about the housing market, let’s connect so you have an expert to give you the context you need.

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Are There Actually More Homes for Sale on Mt. Hood Right Now?

Sunday, November 26, 2023
by Liz Warren

 Yes! There are currently 38 single family homes, condos, leased         land cabins and park properties for sale!



 

If you’re looking to make a move, you want to be sure you have the latest information on the housing market. To help make that possible, here’s an update on the supply of homes for sale today. Whether you’re looking to buy or sell, the number of homes available in your local market matters to you. Take a look below.  

What’s the Truth About Today’s Housing Inventory?

While the story for the past few years has been how few homes are on the market, recent national data may leave you feeling a bit confused. That’s because Realtor.com shows inventory is actually growing a bit month-over-month in many parts of the country (see the blue states in the map below):

 

As the map shows, nationally, housing supply increased just over 5% last month.

Does That Mean the Days of Limited Inventory Are Over?

That might make you wonder: are the days of tight housing supply behind us? The short answer is no. Context is important. While you may see headlines saying inventory is up, data also shows there are still significantly fewer homes for sale than there would usually be in a more normal market.

The graph below compares the latest active listing counts (homes currently available for sale) with the most recent normal years in the housing market (2017-2019):

 

As Lance Lambert, Founder, ResiClub Analytics, explains:

“Housing market inventory is so far below pre-pandemic levels that October's big jump is still just a drop in the bucket.”

What does that mean for you? Remember, real estate is hyper-local. Partnering with a trusted real estate agent will help you gain a better understanding of the inventory situation in your specific market.

If you’re looking to buy, you may have slightly more options than you did in recent months, but you still need to brace for low inventory. A great agent will be able to share their expertise and key strategies that have helped other buyers navigate today’s ongoing low housing supply.

And, if you’re trying to sell, rest assured you haven’t missed your window of opportunity to potentially get multiple offers or see your house sell quickly. While inventory has ticked up some nationally, overall, it’s still low and may be down even more in your area. 

Bottom Line

If you’re looking to buy or sell a home, let’s connect so you can make sure you’re up to date on all the latest trends that could impact your move, including today’s housing supply. 

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STR Owners on Mt. Hood Need to Register Their Units by December 6, 2023

Tuesday, November 21, 2023
by Liz Warren

This information is direct from Clackamas County's website concerning unincorporated Clackamas County STR's registration information.

Short-term rental (STR) owner/operator registration form now online

Date

Deadline Dec. 6; Only STRs in unincorporated areas affected

The registration form for owners/operators of short-term rentals (STRs) in unincorporated Clackamas

County is now online at www.clackamas.us/str.

In September, the Board of County Commissioners unanimously approved STR rules and regulations after

two public hearings were held on the issue. The regulations take effect after 90 days from that time,

meaning that applications are due to Clackamas County by end of day on Wednesday, Dec. 6.

Registration forms at www.clackamas.us/str can be completed and emailed into [email protected] 

or mailed to the county’s finance department:

  Clackamas County Finance Department 
   c/o STR Registration
   Suite 490
   2051 Kaen Road
   Oregon City, OR 97045

Registration forms can also be delivered in person to the finance department as well. Appointments

can be made by emailing [email protected].

Within 30 days after receiving an accurate and complete registration form, county staff will provide

registration confirmation.

Per the regulations, registration for owners/operators is mandated. No STR may be publicly advertised

for rent unless it has been registered with Clackamas County. Full STR regulations can be found at www.clackamas.us/str.

STR owners will continue to pay the county’s transient lodging tax (TLT) of 6%, and pay a newly-enacted

.85% STR user fee on total rental amounts. Payment of TLTs will continue to be made at www.clackamas.us/finance/transient.html. Payments for the .85% user fee will be able to be

made at www.clackamas.us/str.

The first payments to Clackamas County for the .85% user fees will be due on Jan. 15, 2024, for the

time period of Dec. 7, 2023 – Dec. 31, 2023. Future payments will be due on the 15th of each month for

the fees associated with the full previous calendar month. Any STR owner/operator that is not registered

risks non-compliance, which is detailed in the regulations available at www.clackamas.us/str.

As the regulations only affect the unincorporated areas of Clackamas County, registrations are only due

from owners/operators of STRs within unincorporated Clackamas County – there is no effect on STRs

located within city limits.

The Board of County Commissioners intends to revisit these regulations in two years to evaluate the

cost and efficacy of the program and make a determination whether to continue, amend, or discontinue

the regulations.

Future STR updates can also be found at www.clackamas.us/str. STR owners and interested parties

with questions can email [email protected].

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2024 Housing Market Forecast

Friday, November 17, 2023
by Liz Warren

2024 Housing Market Forecast 


       
 

Some Highlights

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Home Price Seasonality Is Coming Back

Thursday, November 16, 2023
by Liz Warren

          

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Mt. Hood National Forest Christmas Trees

Tuesday, November 14, 2023
by Liz Warren
Find your Christmas tree this holiday season
on Mt. Hood National Forest
 
The holiday season is almost here, which means it’s time to get a Mt. Hood National Forest Christmas tree cutting permit and plan a trip into your national forest to find a tree. Christmas tree permits are available through December online, in person from local vendors, or from a Mt. Hood National Forest district office. Permits cost $5 per tree and households can purchase up to five per year.
 
Visitors should reference the Forest’s Christmas tree maps to find designated cutting areas. Cutting trees is prohibited along all highways; in designated wildernesses; in the Bull Run and The Dalles Watersheds; and other areas closed to public entry. Permits purchased online atwww.recreation.gov/tree-permits must be printed and displayed on the vehicle dashboard to be valid. Recreation.gov charges an additional $2.50 service fee per purchase. Traditional orange permits can also be purchased at one of the Forest’s four district offices or from a local vendor.
 
Fourth-grade students with an “Every Kid Outdoors” pass are eligible for one free Christmas tree. To be eligible for the free tree permit, fourth graders must have an Every Kid Outdoors pass. Students can get their free permit by bringing their pass to a district office or online at Recreation.gov. For more information about Every Kid Outdoors, visit: www.everykidoutdoors.gov
 
Guidelines
  • Check the weather forecast and road conditions before traveling. Most forest roads are not maintained for winter driving and cell phone coverage is limited.
  • Bring the 10 essentials including layers, extra food and water, a map, and a first-aid kit.
  • Start early in the day and leave the woods before dark. Tell someone where you’re going.
  • Bring a hand saw to cut your tree and plenty of ropes or bungees to secure it to your vehicle.
  • Trees must be at least 200 feet from recreation sites and 300 feet away from water bodies.
  • Trees must be under 15 feet tall and growing within 12 feet of another tree.
  • Leave a stump less than six inches above the ground. Never cut a tall tree just for the top.
 
For more information about Christmas tree permits, visit: www.fs.usda.gov/goto/mthood/christmastree
For a list of participating vendors, visit: www.fs.usda.gov/goto/mthood/christmastreevendors
Please visit our website for current office hours: www.fs.usda.gov/detail/mthood/about-forest/offices
USDA is an equal opportunity provider, employer, and lender.
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Invest In Your Future With Homeownership

Thursday, November 9, 2023
by Liz Warren

          

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Homeowner Net Worth on Mt. Hood Has Skyrocketed

Tuesday, November 7, 2023
by Liz Warren

 

      
 

If you’re weighing your options to decide whether it makes more sense to rent or buy a home today, here’s one key data point that could help you feel more confident in making your decision. Every three years, the Federal Reserve Board releases the Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF). That report covers the difference in net worth for both homeowners and renters. Spoiler alert: the gap between the two is significant.

The average homeowner’s net worth is almost 40X greater than a renter’s. And here’s the data to prove it (see graph below):

 

The Big Reason Homeowner Net Worth Is So High

In the previous version of that report, the net worth of the average homeowner was roughly $255,000 and that of the average renter was $6,300. But in the release that just came out this year, the gap widened as homeowner net worth climbed dramatically. As the Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) report says:

“. . . the 2019-2022 growth in median net worth was the largest three-year increase over the history of the modern SCF, more than double the next-largest one on record.”

One of the biggest reasons homeowner net worth skyrocketed is home equity.

Over the last few years, known as the ‘unicorn’ years for housing, home prices went through the roof. That’s because there weren’t enough homes for sale, and there was a big influx of buyers rushing to buy them and take advantage of the then record-low mortgage rates. That imbalance of supply and demand pushed prices higher and higher. As a result, most homeowners who had a home during that time saw their equity grow a lot.

If you’re still in the middle of making your decision on whether to rent or buy, you may wonder if you missed the boat on the big net worth boost. But here’s what you need to realize. As a recent article in The Ascent explains:

“Whether your net worth increased in recent years or not, there are steps you can take to boost that number in the coming years. . . buying a home can be a great way to grow your net worth, since home values have a tendency to rise over time.”

Historically, home prices climb over time. Even now that mortgage rates are closer to 7-8%, prices are still rising in many areas of the country because supply is still low compared to demand. That’s why expert forecasts for the next few years call for ongoing appreciation – just at a pace that’s more typical for the housing market.

While it likely won’t be the record ramp-up that happened over the last few years, people who buy now should continue to grow equity in the years ahead. That means, if you’re ready and able to buy a home today, you’ll be making an investment that’ll help build your net worth in the long run.

As Jessica Lautz, Deputy Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says:

“. . . when deciding to rent vs buy, one must calculate the total cost of homeownership (maintenance, utilities, commuting, etc.) and the total financial benefit. Based on new Fed data . . . the median net worth of homeowners was $396,200 vs renters at $10,400. There is no question about the wealth gains that homeownership provides.”

Bottom Line

If you’re on the fence about whether to rent or buy a home, remember that homeownership can give your net worth a big boost over time. If you want to learn more about this or the many other benefits of owning a home, let’s connect.

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A Rise in Foreclosures and Bankruptcies

Sunday, November 5, 2023
by Liz Warren

               

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Liz Warren
Merit Properties Group - Keller Williams Realty PDX Central
Box 131
Welches OR 97067
Direct: 503-705-3090
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